Northstar quarterly market reports
The Northstar Market Report provides powerful empirical evidence as to why we are confident that our investment philosophy and process, closely followed, will deliver market beating returns for our clients over time. This work again points to controllable factors - markets move wildly, falling in and out of love with different sectors and companies, but we have a defined formula that works and we stick to our guns by only owning quality companies when they are incorrectly valued by other investors. We discuss stocks in this report, delving into our investment cases for specific securities which we own.
CURRENT QUARTERLY REPORT
2025 – Quarter 4
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THE BIG PICTURE
This is No Time to Be a Hero
The word ‘’invest’’ originates from the Latin words ‘’to clothe’’ evolving through time to become the Italian word ‘’investire’’, which meant to ‘’commit money to earn a financial return’’.
At the heart of this definition, is the word ‘commit’ which implies a length of time; it calls for attachment that yields returns.
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FROM THE ANALYSTS
Positive Feedback Loops: The Inflation Shift Reshaping South Africa’s Growth and Fiscal Outlook
This year provided a seminal moment for South African fixed income investors. On the 12th of November 2025, the National Treasury announced a change to the country’s inflation rate target. The target has been lowered from 3%-6%, a band that has been set in place since the inception of inflation targeting in 2000, to a singular target of 3% that incorporates a 1% tolerance band. The topic, that had remained largely academic over the years, rapidly gained traction due to growing pressure and action from an opportunistic South African Reserve Bank (SARB). After contested debate, technical work committees and public and political consultations, the National Treasury formally adopted a new inflation rate target to which the SARB is now mandated to carry out.
This article will aim to provide a brief overview of the history of inflation rate targeting in South Africa, as well as describe why the current economic environment presents an opportunity for an inflation target recalibration. The positive effects and challenges of this recalibration will be outlined, with a closing note on how the team at Northstar perceives the medium-term horizon in the local fixed income space and our positioning thereof.
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FROM THE ANALYSTS
Elevance Health: On the Mend
Under pressure from rising costs and policy uncertainty, US health insurers continue to face a challenging near-term outlook. Yet, with many headwinds likely temporary, opportunities are emerging for long-term investors. Through its scale, diversified growth, and improving cost control, Elevance is well placed to navigate the complexity and return to sustainable growth.
QUARTERLY REPORTS ARCHIVE
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