No Rational Manager Would Buy Gold; No Rational Manager Would Sell Gold!

In late 2021 and 2022, we faced sustained criticism for holding gold when it was widely regarded as an unattractive asset, it offered no yield, had underperformed for years, and was often viewed as irrational to own. By 2025, sentiment had fully inverted: gold prices had risen sharply, and the same investors questioned why we were reducing our exposure. These experiences highlight the behavioural cycles that often dominate asset pricing. Our approach is not based on forecasting prices, but rather on probabilistic frameworks, diversification benefits, and disciplined portfolio construction, accumulating gold when it offered diversification assistance and asymmetrical payoffs, and reducing it when it exceeded reasonable expectations.