Commentary for the quarter ended 30 September 2025
P E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :
Global equity markets continued their strong run, delivering robust returns across the board. The MSCI World Index rose 7.4% during the quarter, despite tariff related tensions, supported by AI optimism, strong commodity market performance and rising expectations for short term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Except for Indian equities, emerging markets also recorded a strong quarter, with the MSCI EM Index returning 11.0%, led by standout performances from China (20.8%), South Africa (20.6%), Taiwan (14.7%) and Mexico (13.3%).
While the US Dollar remained relatively stable during the third quarter, with the DXY Index depreciating by 1%, commodity markets and in particular precious metals continued to soar. Silver joined the precious metal rally with a 29% increase during the quarter, while gold and platinum prices rose a further 17% and 19% respectively, bringing year to date returns to 46% and 77%. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, energy prices remained contained, with oil falling by 1% as the market priced in expected surpluses.
Locally, the Rand closed the quarter at 17.2 against the US Dollar, continuing to benefit from strong precious metal exports, well anchored inflation and an improved growth outlook, albeit constrained by structural impediments such as infrastructure backlogs and policy uncertainty. The local equity market had a very strong quarter, with the JSE Capped SWIX delivering 16.3% in US Dollar terms and 12.8% in Rand terms. Returns were however highly concentrated among precious metals, which recorded an exceptional quarter on the back of underlying commodity price strength. Overall, resources rallied 46.8% in the third quarter of 2025 (precious metals 58%; industrial metals 18%), while the industrial and financial indices returned 3.7% and 1.0% respectively.
P E R F O R M A N C E R E V I E W :
The Northstar BCI Equity Fund returned 7.3% (net of fees), underperforming both the ASISA South African Equity General category peer average of 10.8% and the JSE Capped SWIX Index, which returned 12.9%. The negative attribution was predominantly due to the fund’s underweight position in gold equities, which performed exceptionally well during the quarter. While the fund maintains meaningful exposure to precious metals and benefited from overweight positions in Northam Platinum (Q3 2025: +48%) and Valterra (Q3 2025: +57%), underweight exposure to Gold Fields, AngloGold, and Harmony Gold detracted from relative performance. It is worth noting that market concentration reached extreme levels, with only 18% of stocks on the JSE outperforming the index during the quarter.
P O R T F O L I O P O S I T I O N I N G :
Over the past six months we have witnessed an extreme bifurcation in returns within the local market, with resources producing exceptional returns while South Africa-sensitive stocks, such as banks and local retailers, have continued to come under pressure. This has occurred even as local inflationary pressures have been well contained by the SARB, South African bond yields have rallied by more than 2% since April 2025 on the back of an improving domestic environment, and the Rand has appreciated significantly against most developed and emerging market currencies.
Given these dynamics, as well as the highly compelling prospective returns from SA -sensitive assets, we have continued to increase our exposure to South African banks, retailers and select industrial opportunities, which we believe will deliver strong medium-term returns. Against this backdrop, we have been reducing our exposure to gold equities into strength, which now stands at 4% of the fund. Furthermore, we have reduced our position in Naspers and taken profits on select strong-performing South African REITs.
While precious metals have benefited from a supportive global backdrop, we believe gold equities are currently pricing in an overly bullish outlook for the metal. We continue to favour PGM producers, which offer more normalised profitability levels relative to the peak-cycle margins seen in gold producers, and maintain a constructive view on diversified metal producers such as Anglo American and Glencore, which we believe present attractive cyclical entry points. At the same time, despite the significant underperformance of South Africa-sensitive sectors relative to resources, valuations remain highly compelling. We believe an improving domestic environment, supported by contained inflation, stronger fiscal dynamics and a firmer currency, should underpin a recovery in these sectors over the medium term.