This medium-high risk fund is ideal for investors who require long-term capital growth by investing in various asset classes, predominantly in equity. The recommended investment time horizon is 7+ years.
This moderate to high risk fund is ideal for investors seeking meaningful growth of capital from a diversified portfolio of global equities and other assets. The fund’s aim is to outperform global flexible fund peers. An investment time horizon of at least 7 to 10 years is recommended.
Returns reflected below the chart are annualised. Source: Bloomberg, MorningStar and Northstar Asset Management.
Benchmark Return
Outperformance
Benchmark Return
Outperformance
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Available: Direct
The Northstar Global Flexible dollar fund returned 3.56% for the 3 months to end March 2025. Its peer group average return, where 280 competitors compete against the fund, returned -0.1%. The fund ended the quarter in the 10th percentile of this peer group.
Over the past year, the fund gained 7.52% in dollars, the peer group returned 3.28%, the Northstar fund ranked in the eighth percentile globally.
Since inception, (2017) the fund has returned 6.9% annualized against the peer median of 3.2%. The fund is ranked in the fifth percentile since its launch.
Do you remember Jack Hall’s words from the movie, ‘The day after tomorrow’?
“Mankind survived the last ice age. We are certainly capable of surviving this one. All depends on whether we can learn from our mistakes.’’
A dangerous geopolitical backdrop
This resonates in 2025. Donald Trump started turning the world on its head in January 2017, the first ace age, markets are living through the second, this too will end.
Trump 2 is an emboldened version of Trump 1, and we do not need to regurgitate the endless string of actions he has taken that has led to ruptures in the global economy this year. What we can say is that 53% of US imports are intermediate goods, the US does not make them and America’s consumer-driven economy, which accounts for 70% of GDP, needs these items priced cheaply to avoid inflation and to sustain consumption. Meddling with this delicate ecosystem will cause economic growth to collapse.
Asset class performances
The signs were all there, an about turn occurred in markets this year, it has been mild in the first quarter but has galloped from April. Let us compare the past 12 months of asset class returns versus the first quarter of 2025.
|
Asset |
Past 12 months |
Past 3 months |
|
US 20-year treasuries |
-11.2% |
+6.8% |
|
Gold |
+40.7% |
19.3% |
|
S&P 500 |
+8.3% |
-4.3% |
|
MSCI EM |
+8.1% |
+2.9% |
|
MSCI Europe |
+6.9% |
+10.5% |
|
MSCI Growth |
+5.4% |
-7.8% |
|
MSCI Value |
+8.7% |
+4.8% |
|
MSCI Communication Ser |
+13.3% |
-4.4% |
|
MSCI IT |
+4.2% |
-11.9% |
|
MSCI Healthcare |
-1.1% |
+5.1% |
|
Euro versus US $ |
+0.2% |
+4.2% |
|
Brazilian Real versus US $ |
-14.3% |
+7.3% |
|
JP Yen versus US $ |
+1% |
+4.8% |
Because the above table includes moving 12-month numbers, which incorporates the past three months, being the start to market reversals, it does not fully do justice to the theme that has been unfolding. This being that the sexiest investment spaces o f 2024 have entered the dog box in 2025.
Beginning with geographies, North American was the top performing region in 2024 (+24.5%), it is one of the three worse perfo rmers in
2025 (-4.3%). Against this, Latin America was the worst performing geography in 2024 (-26%) yet is up (+12.8%) in 2025.
Not one developed market currency outperformed the dollar in 2024, even the Swiss Franc lost over 7% against the powerful greenback. Out of thirty-eight emerging and frontier market currencies, four eked out minor positive returns last year versus the $, with the balance deeply negative and in certain instances, like the Brazilian Real, carnage unfolded (-21.4%). Out of a basket of forty-six developed, emerging and frontier currencies, only nine are slightly negative versus the dollar in 2025.
With regards to asset classes, of the main asset classes, gold did best in 2024 (+27.5%), followed by equities, with the MSCI ACWI (+18%), US cash returned (+5.3%) and the bond market, represented by the GLAG, fell (-1.7%). In 2025, gold continues to power ahead (+19.3%), equities are negative (-1.8%), the GLAG is positive (+2.3%) with cash delivering a steady 1%.
Sector winners in 2024 were Consumer Services (Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, Disney and AT&T) (+34.3%), Information Technology (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom and SAP) (+33.1%), Financials (Berkshire, JPM, Visa, Mastercard and Bank of America) (+27.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (Amazon, Tesla, Home Depot, McDonalds and LVMH) (+21.9%). Only Financials have remained positive in 2025.
As to styles, in 2024 it was all about Momentum (+30%) and Growth (+26%), whereas Value only returned (+11.5%). Fast forward to 2025 and both Momentum and Growth are negative, whereas Value has gained (+4.8%).
Investors are derating US asset valuations.
The catch phrase in 2024 was US exceptionalism, a Goldilocks scenario consisting of strong GDP growth, solid earnings momentum, falling inflation and the Fed cutting interest rates. This ‘’minimal risk’’ background was rewarded with a premium market rating, at one stage the FWD P/E on the S&P was above 23X.
Unfortunately for investors, this exceptionalism has been weaponized in trade and through other geopolitical tussles with both friends and foes alike, to achieve various political, social, and economic outcomes for America.
Ironically, as is evident from the data above, market participants are voting with their feet. US assets (most notably the US $ which normally rallies during periods of heightened uncertainty) are being sold off. Against this, markets targeted by Trump are being priced higher.
The positioning of the Northstar Global Flexible Fund.
The fund has operated during the quarter under review at about 65% average equity exposure. This is close to a neutral level, with equity bands ranging between 50% and 90%.
This moderate equity exposure was driven by an expected return from Northstar’s global buy list of about 15% – at best a mediocre return expectation.
The fund was underweight US equities and overweight Europe, the UK and China. This certainly assisted performance in 2025.
Main overweight sector exposures being in Healthcare and Consumer Staples with Information Technology being the fund’s larges t underweight. This positioning also worked well.
Early in 2025, Northstar’s Fixed Income Team extended duration in the fund, the strong showing from longer duration treasuries drove strong FI performance over the quarter.
Latest Allocation
